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The Political and Economic Costs of Sharon's Disengagement Plan Samar Assad, Senior Analyst, 202 338 1290, sassad@palestinecenter.org Nadia Hijab, Executive Director, 202 338 1958, nadiahijab@palestinecenter.org Background Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is slated tomorrow to present U.S. President George Bush with details of Israel's planned unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. The Palestinian Authority has officially welcomed any liberation of Palestinian land, but spoken strongly against attempts to impose a final status that torpedoes the Road Map. Palestinian Foreign Minister Nabil Shaath is due to meet U.S. officials in Washington, DC on April 23. What Unilateral Disengagement Could Mean According to press reports, Sharon will pull Israeli settlers and troops out of Gaza, which would remain encircled, as well as four small and isolated settlements in the northern West Bank. He would also establish "Israeli sovereignty" over six areas in the West Bank. In addition to seeking U.S. endorsement of the pull-out and annexation of settlements that are illegal under international law, he is also said to want U.S. support for rejecting the Palestinian right of return, carrying out operations in evacuated areas, and continuing construction on the Wall carving the West Bank into isolated enclaves. The plan would prolong the Palestinian-Israeli conflict by creating a long-term interim situation and destroy Palestinian aspirations for freedom in an independent sovereign state. Sharon himself says his plan forces the Palestinians to "give up on their aspirations for many years to come," and make them unable to set up a state. The Political Cost to U.S. Policy Even if U.S. President George Bush gives Sharon only qualified backing and reaffirms his commitment to the Road Map, he will be seen in the region as having acquiesced to Israeli demands that clearly oppose stated U.S. policy. He will also be seen as giving a green light to a violation of international law and Palestinian rights - while Israel continues to conduct targeted assassinations, confiscate lands, and demolish homes. "Sharon is a party to the conflict not an arbitrator, he cannot unilaterally dictate to the Palestinians a plan that touches the existence and future of the Palestinian people," said Palestinian political analyst Ziad Abu Amr. "This would be a stark violation of the principle of bilateralism that every peace process has been based on." The Economic Cost to the U.S. Treasury Experts believe that Sharon will ask for more funds to cover the costs of the withdrawal as well as "compensation" for the settlement infrastructure left in Gaza. Israel is already the largest single recipient of U.S. military and economic aid, roughly some $3 bn/year. In 2003, Congress authorized $9 billion in loan guarantees for Israel (Public Law No. 108-11), enabling Israel to borrow $3 billion in each of 2003, 2004, and 2005 with U.S. guarantees to creditors if Israel defaults. Sharon hopes that some of this amount can be put towards its Gaza plan. Under this law, the funds are to be used only in areas Israel held before the 1967 war. The U.S. has often said it would hold back the amount of loans available because of settlements, but the Bush Administration deducted just $289.5mn for 2003, much less than what Israel spends in the Occupied Palestinian Territories. The Humanitarian Disaster Sharon's plan will not only prolong violent conflict but also the disastrous human situation. For example, on April 1, 2004, The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA) was forced to suspend its distribution of emergency food aid to about 600,000 refugees in Gaza after Israel prevented it from transporting its empty containers out of Gaza for reloading. Israel lifted the restrictions and food distribution resumed. "Israel realized that if UNRWA stopped distributing food, the international community would demand that it, as an occupying power will have to provide the food," said Sami Mshasha, UNRWA Jerusalem-based spokesman. But the humanitarian situation is dire four years into the uprising (Intifada) against Israeli occupation. As early as 2002, a study by the U.S. Agency for International Development found that 17.5% of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip suffer from chronic malnutrition and over 18% percent of 6 year-olds have anemia. A World Bank country brief in March 2004 estimated that poverty affected 50% of the Palestinian population.4 For information from the Occupied Palestinian Territories, contact: Sami Mshasha, UNRWA spokesman, Jerusalem 972-50-317-094 s.mshasha@unrwa.org www.unrwa.org Ziad Abu Amr, Palestinian political analyst and member of parliament, Gaza Strip 972-59-408-407 plc_cps@hotmail.com For more information on Settlements: www.btselem.org, www.arij.org, www.fmep.org For more info on the Separation Wall: www.nad-plo.org, www.reliefweb.int/hic-opt/ . 1) Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention states "The Occupying Power shall not deport or transfer parts of its own civilian population into territories it occupies."
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